3 Scenarios for Higher Education. Alpha Prototype.

Scenario 1. Education State

In this Scenario, Universities receive state sponsored mandate to takeover vocational and community up-skilling in addition to their higher education role. Cross border mobility slows and Qualifications Frameworks incorporate Micro Credentials. However local qualifications are prioritized as governments focus on their own economies. Higher Education is funded by the state with Income Contingent Loans and/or State Funded Credits dominating. Technology plays a supporting B2B role and B2C models slide backwards. Public-private-partnerships grow as institutions seek to fill capability gaps.

Scenario 2. Practicum Pivot

In the Practicum Pivot Scenario, universities revert to a ‘R&D’ role, exiting the broad post-secondary education market.  Professional education and upskilling is taken over by vocational and community college systems. Micro 3-month up to 2-year competency-based credentials dominate and 3 to 4 year degrees rapidly diminish, with multi year full time campus-based study is rare. Experiential apprenticeship programs reform the hiring process. Industry associations power curriculum.

Scenario 3. Learning Market

Learning Market represents a fully de-regulated higher education market, with learners and employers effectively ‘regulating’ higher education based on outcomes delivered. Incentives are geared to effective job performance and labor market outcomes.  Consumers as regulators are agnostic to public/private, everyone competes head-to-head. Policy and funding focuses on productivity and output. Income Sharing Agreements are the dominant funding source. Prices vary to fit the earnings outcome/uplift programs deliver.

Evaluate and Iterate

Throughout the webinar, participants were polled on their critical assessment of the likelihood/probability of each scenario unfolding as the dominant model globally, in their region or home market. Participants also shared their own personal scenario preference, as a learner, to inform a different perspective.

Finally, participants contributed to a ‘Massive Open Online Brainstorm’ of the critical drivers or determinants that in their view and on reflection of the prototype, would define, drive and divide future scenarios for Higher Education.

Download the Prototype to stay in touch with further developments.